Is Google now doomed? Wild thoughts and conspiracy theories below!

I have just spent an interesting hour on the PC since my last post.  Those who read it will recall that I posted some modern Greek, and then the Google Translate output for it – good, but by no means perfect.  It then occurred to me to try Microsoft’s Bing AI.  The output from that was marvellous, so I added that to the end of the post.

Then I started pasting more of the modern Greek into Bing AI, chapter by chapter.  This went well until chapter 11, when it crashed.  And crashed and crashed.  When it did return, the output was obviously inferior, using different sources!  So I stopped.  The Bing AI interface was frankly a mess anyway.

Then it occurred to me to try Bard AI, the Google product.  This produced… inferior output.  Not really any better than Google Translate.

Then I tried ChatGPT 3.5, the OpenAI product.  And suddenly I was getting good output again, if subtly different.

Google has dominated the web ever since the late 90s.  But it is basically a search engine company.  It rose to power because it was a markedly better search engine than AltaVista, which it destroyed.  But the founders of Google have long since departed, as has its “don’t be evil” ethos.  For many years now the company has concentrated on squeezing dollars out of the web.

But “AI” is basically search-engine technology.  So the rise of OpenAI is really the arrival of a new generation of search engine; and Google is struggling.

What the OpenAI people have realised is that most people do not, actually, want to “search the web”.  They want information.  So they have reimagined the search engine, added a  layer of algorithms on top, with a chat-bot on top of that.  Their search engine produces information, not lists of results.  These engines can be targeted for developers, or translators, or other specialised markets.

It looks very much as if OpenAI have created the next generation search engine.

If so, it must have become obvious to search-engine people about a year ago.  Google executives must have been quaking in their well-funded boots.  This is the end for Google, as Google was the end for AltaVista… unless.  Unless Google can catch up.

It has been telling how little we really know about how “AI” works.  The hype has been tremendous.  The hard facts have been few.  And no wonder, if it’s now a cut-throat commercial race.

Google may have some trouble here.  It isn’t really a tech company any more.  It’s an advertising company.  Products like Google Docs were invented elsewhere and bought in.  Microsoft went down this route, as IBM did before them.  There is still interesting tech going on, but they aren’t the cutting edge.

Microsoft will be the big beneficiary of this new era, because of its far-sighted investment in the OpenAI company.  Bing AI, I think, must basically be a front-end on OpenAI.

If all this is true, then Google may not be able to fight back.  The link to Microsoft means that they cannot just buy OpenAI, which would have been a possible way forward.  So… maybe Google will enter the long decline experienced by other tech companies before.  Once people do not use their search engine, it’s basically over.

For the conspiracy minded, this may also explain some otherwise perplexing events of the last year.  In particular it may explain the boardroom coup at OpenAI, when the directors sacked the company founder, Sam Altman.  Why the heck would you do that?  It didn’t stick – Microsoft intervened. The directors seem to be just corporate drones, of no special talent.  Microsoft wasn’t going to let them wreck the company that was about to take over the world.  But why would you do that at all?  Why get rid of the guy who will make you rich?

If this was a Hollywood movie, who would be the prime beneficiary of those mysterious shenanigens at OpenAI?  If OpenAI had collapsed, if Altman could no longer direct the company, who would benefit?  It’s an interesting thought.  Did someone bribe the renta-board of OpenAI to crash the company?  Some existing vested interest?  Not necessarily Google, of course, but possibly someone with shares in it?

Likewise it is interesting to see all the lawsuits, and claims of copyright on the databases used, the large language models (LLMs).  Not that the claims are bogus.  If I understand correctly, there is little doubt that many of the modern AI databases are indeed based upon masses of copyright material.  We know this thanks to one company making an incautious publication which listed what they were loading into their database!

But say that the copyright claims probably valid.  Whether that is true or not – and when it will be decided – will be a decision for the US courts.  These are notoriously political, so money and power will no doubt decide.  Again, who would benefit from knobbling the new technology?

In truth I have no idea about all of this.  There must be people less connected than myself, but it might be hard to name them!  But perhaps all this really signals that the revolution is here.

Yet this revolution may not benefit us, the ordinary internet users.

For one thing, OpenAI is the first web technology that you have to pay for.  It’s on subscription.  This is a new, and unwelcome change to the free internet.

Likewise searching the web at least gives you a choice of viewpoints.  If you get your news from OpenAI, you get one viewpoint only.  It’s great news for the would-be censors, who seem to grow more numerous every day.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

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Methodius ad Theodorum (BHG 1352y) in modern Greek – part 1

I’ve now obtained access to the modern Greek translation by Ch. Stergioulis of the “Life of St Nicholas” composed by Methodius I, patriarch of Constantinople, around 843 AD, and dedicated to a certain Theodore.  I’ve OCR’d the text using Abbyy Finereader 15, and corrected it – I had to install the Greek language patch into Windows.  I have created a Word document containing the text.  Doing so caused Word to do some funny things, but I got there in the end.

Google Translate is not quite – not quite – good enough; but it gives us quite a lot.  The actual storyline starts in chapter 3, which Stergioulis renders as follows:

3. Καταγόταν ο Νικόλαος από τα Πάταρα, πόλη της επαρχίας των Λυκίων, η οποία εκείνη την εποχή (του αγίου Νικολάου) είχε αρκετούς κατοίκους. Τώρα όμως μοιάζει περισσότερο με κώμη παρά με πόλη14. Κι αυτό παθαίνουν πολυτρόπως οι πόλεις-παρακμάζουν και οι κάτοικοί τους μεταναστεύουν-εξαιτίας των αμέτρητων κριμάτων τους έναντι του θεού. Έτσι λοιπόν κατανοούμε και αυτό που συνηθίζουμε να γράφουμε, ότι δηλαδή οι πόλεις τιμωρούνται για τις αμαρτίες των κατοίκων τους15. Βρίσκεται δηλαδή, εκεί κοντά τόπος πεδινός, σχισμένος στα δύο, σαν ξεσχισμένο ιμάτιο. Κι από το ρήγμα που έχει δημιουργηθεί, φαίνεται να αναδύεται, την ημέρα, καυτός ατμός, ενώ τη νύχτα ξεπηδά σαν από χάλκινο καμίνι φλογώδης καπνός16. Και καίει το χέρι όποιου τολμά να το ακουμπήσει, χωρίς όμως να του το κατατρώγει αλλά και την σάρκα, όπως θα γινόταν στην περίπτωση που κάποιος απλώνει το χέρι του στη φωτιά• είναι όμως απεικόνιση και προοίμιο, με μικρή ομοιότητα, του αιωνίου πυρός. Και ευρισκόμενοι σε απορία με το φαινόμενο οι μεγαλύτεροι σε ηλικία μετέφεραν από γενιά σε γενιά, ο κάθε πατέρας στο παιδί του, (όπως μας διασώζεται ο άγραφος πλην αληθινός τούτος λόγος), ότι εξαιτίας της ακολασίας και της σαρκολαγνείας των κατοίκων της η θεία δίκη κατεδίκασε τούτη τη γη στο φρικτό αυτό θέαμα, για να αποτρέψει την επι-στροφή τους στο μέρος αυτό.

Google Translate:

3. Nicholas came from Patara, a city in the province of Lycia, which at that time (of Saint Nicholas) had several inhabitants. But now it looks more like a county than a city[14]. And this is what cities suffer in many ways – they decline and their inhabitants emigrate – because of their countless crimes against God. This is how we also understand what we usually write, namely that cities are punished for the sins of their inhabitants[15]. In other words, there is a lowland area nearby, torn in half, like a torn garment. And from the rift that has been created, hot steam seems to rise during the day, while at night fiery smoke rises as if from a copper furnace[16]. And it burns the hand of whoever dares to touch it, but without consuming it but also the flesh, as it would be in the case of someone stretching out his hand into the fire; but it is a representation and prelude, with little resemblance, of the eternal fire . And being perplexed by the phenomenon, the elders conveyed from generation to generation, each father to his child, (as this unwritten but true word is preserved to us), that because of the debauchery and carnal lust of its inhabitants the divine judgment condemned this land in this horrible sight, to prevent their return to this place.

Hmm.  I’ve underlined bits that look strange in the English.  Surely the sense is that Patara had “lots” of inhabitants?  Hardly “several”?  But it’s not bad, considering that I know not a word of modern Greek myself.

I did wonder if there were some online Greek dictionaries in which I could look up individual words, and verify the meaning.  Even better if there was something that could cope with inflections, and tell me what case etc it was.  But I must be using the wrong search terms, because all I got was junk sites.

Even so, this is interesting.  It explains why John the Deacon, in his Latin version – clearly a paraphrase – devotes the second half of the same chapter (= 2) to a digression about a field where volcanic fissures had opened, and you could burn your hand but it was not consumed.  It’s because he’s following Methodius, and making rather a hash of it.

The footnotes are also interesting:

14. Η συγκεκριμένη φράση υπαινίσσεται ίσως τη φυσική παρουσία του συγγραφέα στην περιοχή. Το ίδιο προκύπτει κι από την περιγραφή του ηφαιστειώδους εδάφους της περιοχής της Λυκίας που ακολουθεί.

14. This particular phrase perhaps alludes to the author’s physical presence in the area. The same follows from the description of the volcanic terrain of the Lycia region that follows.

15. Γρηγόριος Νύσσης, Εις τόν Εκκλησιαστήν, Όμιλία Α’, σ. 282,11-14: «τάχα δ’ άν ήμιν γνωριμώτερον τό ζητούμενον νόημα γένοιτο, εί την γραφικήν συνήθειαν έπί τών πρός τό κρεϊττον νοουμένων συνεξετάσαιμεν.»

15. Gregory of Nyssa, To the Ecclesiastes, Sermon I, p. 282,11-14: “so if we knew the meaning sought in general, we should consider the scriptural custom of those who understand the creed.”

16. Το έδαφος της Λυκίας είναι ηφαιστειώδες, εξαιτίας της έκρηξης ηφαιστείου κοντά στη Φασήλιδα.

16. The terrain of Lycia is volcanic, due to the eruption of a volcano near Phasilida.

Notes 14 and 16 are clear enough. Note 15 tho, is not.

It would be interesting to put the whole thing into English.  As far as I know there is no English translation of the Methodius ad Theodorum, despite its key importance for the transmission of the legend of St Nicholas.  But I don’t think Google Translate alone will do.  Dictionaries of modern Greek are needed!

UPDATE:  It occurred to me to try Bing Ai, with the Copilot in Microsoft Edge.  The result was impressive:

Nikolaos came from Pataras, a city in the province of Lycia, which at that time (of Saint Nicholas) had many inhabitants. Now, however, it looks more like a village than a city. And this is what happens to cities – they decline and their inhabitants emigrate – because of their countless sins against God. Therefore, we understand what we usually write, that is, that cities are punished for the sins of their inhabitants. There is a nearby plain, split at the 8th degree, like a torn garment. And from the rift that has been created, hot steam appears during the day, while at night fiery smoke emerges like from a copper furnace. And it burns the hand of anyone who dares to touch it, but without corroding it or the flesh, as would happen if someone were to put their hand in the fire. It is, however, a representation and prelude, with little similarity, of the eternal fire. And the elders, perplexed by the phenomenon, passed down from generation to generation, each father to his child (as this unwritten but true story is preserved), that because of the debauchery and carnality of its inhabitants, divine justice condemned this land to this terrible spectacle, to prevent their return to this place.

Better!

Update (14th Jan): I’ve fixed the “8” and removed a spurious dash.  Interestingly Google Translate handled the “8uo” as “duo” correctly.  Thank you Ikokki for pointing that out.  Bing AI isn’t speaking to me tho, so I cannot rerun it.  I’ve tried with the free account at ChatGPT, and asked: “Can you translate something for me from modern Greek to English?”  It replied “Certainly! I’ll do my best to help you with the translation. Please provide the text you’d like me to translate from modern Greek to English.”  I pasted in the text above and got this:

Nicolas originated from Patara, a city in the province of Lycia, which at that time (during the era of Saint Nicholas) had numerous inhabitants. However, now it resembles more of a village than a city. Cities undergo this fate in various ways—they decline, and their residents migrate—due to their countless sins against God. Therefore, we understand what we commonly write, namely that cities are punished for the sins of their residents.

Nearby, there is a low-lying area, split in two, like a torn garment. And from the rift that has formed, hot steam seems to rise during the day, while at night, it emerges like fiery smoke from a bronze furnace. It burns the hand of anyone who dares to touch it, without, however, consuming it or the flesh, as would happen if someone were to place their hand in fire. It is, however, an image and prelude, with little resemblance, of the eternal fire.

Perplexed by this phenomenon, the older ones conveyed from generation to generation, each father to his child (as this unwritten but true account is passed down to us), that because of the licentiousness and carnal desires of its inhabitants, divine justice condemned this land to this terrible spectacle to prevent their return to this place.

Paragraphing by ChatGPT.

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