I have just spent an interesting hour on the PC since my last post. Those who read it will recall that I posted some modern Greek, and then the Google Translate output for it – good, but by no means perfect. It then occurred to me to try Microsoft’s Bing AI. The output from that was marvellous, so I added that to the end of the post.
Then I started pasting more of the modern Greek into Bing AI, chapter by chapter. This went well until chapter 11, when it crashed. And crashed and crashed. When it did return, the output was obviously inferior, using different sources! So I stopped. The Bing AI interface was frankly a mess anyway.
Then it occurred to me to try Bard AI, the Google product. This produced… inferior output. Not really any better than Google Translate.
Then I tried ChatGPT 3.5, the OpenAI product. And suddenly I was getting good output again, if subtly different.
Google has dominated the web ever since the late 90s. But it is basically a search engine company. It rose to power because it was a markedly better search engine than AltaVista, which it destroyed. But the founders of Google have long since departed, as has its “don’t be evil” ethos. For many years now the company has concentrated on squeezing dollars out of the web.
But “AI” is basically search-engine technology. So the rise of OpenAI is really the arrival of a new generation of search engine; and Google is struggling.
What the OpenAI people have realised is that most people do not, actually, want to “search the web”. They want information. So they have reimagined the search engine, added a layer of algorithms on top, with a chat-bot on top of that. Their search engine produces information, not lists of results. These engines can be targeted for developers, or translators, or other specialised markets.
It looks very much as if OpenAI have created the next generation search engine.
If so, it must have become obvious to search-engine people about a year ago. Google executives must have been quaking in their well-funded boots. This is the end for Google, as Google was the end for AltaVista… unless. Unless Google can catch up.
It has been telling how little we really know about how “AI” works. The hype has been tremendous. The hard facts have been few. And no wonder, if it’s now a cut-throat commercial race.
Google may have some trouble here. It isn’t really a tech company any more. It’s an advertising company. Products like Google Docs were invented elsewhere and bought in. Microsoft went down this route, as IBM did before them. There is still interesting tech going on, but they aren’t the cutting edge.
Microsoft will be the big beneficiary of this new era, because of its far-sighted investment in the OpenAI company. Bing AI, I think, must basically be a front-end on OpenAI.
If all this is true, then Google may not be able to fight back. The link to Microsoft means that they cannot just buy OpenAI, which would have been a possible way forward. So… maybe Google will enter the long decline experienced by other tech companies before. Once people do not use their search engine, it’s basically over.
For the conspiracy minded, this may also explain some otherwise perplexing events of the last year. In particular it may explain the boardroom coup at OpenAI, when the directors sacked the company founder, Sam Altman. Why the heck would you do that? It didn’t stick – Microsoft intervened. The directors seem to be just corporate drones, of no special talent. Microsoft wasn’t going to let them wreck the company that was about to take over the world. But why would you do that at all? Why get rid of the guy who will make you rich?
If this was a Hollywood movie, who would be the prime beneficiary of those mysterious shenanigens at OpenAI? If OpenAI had collapsed, if Altman could no longer direct the company, who would benefit? It’s an interesting thought. Did someone bribe the renta-board of OpenAI to crash the company? Some existing vested interest? Not necessarily Google, of course, but possibly someone with shares in it?
Likewise it is interesting to see all the lawsuits, and claims of copyright on the databases used, the large language models (LLMs). Not that the claims are bogus. If I understand correctly, there is little doubt that many of the modern AI databases are indeed based upon masses of copyright material. We know this thanks to one company making an incautious publication which listed what they were loading into their database!
But say that the copyright claims probably valid. Whether that is true or not – and when it will be decided – will be a decision for the US courts. These are notoriously political, so money and power will no doubt decide. Again, who would benefit from knobbling the new technology?
In truth I have no idea about all of this. There must be people less connected than myself, but it might be hard to name them! But perhaps all this really signals that the revolution is here.
Yet this revolution may not benefit us, the ordinary internet users.
For one thing, OpenAI is the first web technology that you have to pay for. It’s on subscription. This is a new, and unwelcome change to the free internet.
Likewise searching the web at least gives you a choice of viewpoints. If you get your news from OpenAI, you get one viewpoint only. It’s great news for the would-be censors, who seem to grow more numerous every day.
It will be interesting to see what happens.